The Signal and the Noise
2 journalers for this copy...
An entertaining book on how most predictions fail. I found it interesting that the author tries to find a reasoning to explain why some predictions actually succeed when the best explanation for their success is also chance. Interesting read anyway with a lot of actionable advice.
"In the United States, we live in a very results-oriented society. If someone is rich or famous or beautiful, we tend to think they deserve to be those things. Often, in fact, these factors are self-reinforcing: making money begets more opportunities to make money; being famous provides someone with more ways to leverage their celebrity; standards of beauty may change with the look of a Hollywood starlet. Success is determined by some combination of hard work, natural talent, and a person's opportunities and environment--in other words, some combination of noise and signal. In the USA, we tend to emphasize the signal component most of the time--except perhaps when it comes to our own shortcomings, which we tend to attribute to bad luck."
"If you can't make a good prediction, it is often harmful to pretend that you can."
Journal Entry 4 by webosfritos at Sidewalk library corner Traveler Street and Dorchester Avenue in Boston, Massachusetts USA on Saturday, January 1, 2022
Released 2 yrs ago (1/1/2022 UTC) at Sidewalk library corner Traveler Street and Dorchester Avenue in Boston, Massachusetts USA
WILD RELEASE NOTES:
In the Corner of Traveler Street and Dorchester Avenue, in front of the Cambria Hotel, you will find a red "Sidewalk Library". There you can pick a book or leave a book. "The signal and the noise" will be there until somebody will catch it. Enjoy the hunt.
I found the book in the red Sidewalk Library when I was killing time by walking along the water in Boston. That was Jan. 8, now it's 2 weeks later, and I'm finally starting to read it.